Swettenham Newsletter April2011 Edition 25

EDITORIAL

There is significant commentary in breeding circles regarding service fees and the costs of rearing yearlings to sales time. In all this commentary there is the inevitable comparison with returns versus outlays.

As with every business some are managed well, thereby reducing the risks and exposures to loss. Some are run poorly and simply expose themselves to more risk and greater losses. Why would we consider that the breeding industry will be any different?

It is therefore quite alarming that this investigative or deeply analytical examination of our industry at this time, results in numerous people declaring that the risks are significant. Surprise, surprise, NOT.

Due diligence is something that is rarely practised by breeders. If it were then there would be a great deal fewer stallions, more competitive high end stallion fees, better quality mares (pedigree and type) and even fewer people losing money.

Not every stallion is equal. They are not just trying to re-populate their species like they did in the wild, they are being subjected to the ultimate test THE WINNING POST. The people who get them there, the trainers also realise that not every horse is equal. Hence, they are much keener to buy well grown, well muscled, strong looking yearlings than the backward yearling likely to win their maiden over 1850m at Kyneton as a late 3YO or early 4YO, after three or four racing preparations.

Get with it! The key to success is relatively simple. As with most things in racing and breeding it all comes down to percentages. Turn the percentages in your favour and give yourself the best possible “roll of the dice”.
Consider these things:

  • Like begets Like.
    › Start with a horribly built mare and you will get a worse product 25% of the time, the same product 50% of the time and a better product 25% of the time (Mendel theory).
    › Stallions are generally better types, so they give you some hope of upgrading the stock you breed.
    › However, not all stallions are the same.
    › Some can really stamp their stock.
    › Stallions that throw good strong types consistently will most likely enjoy increased competition for their stock at sales time.
    › These same stallions will generally throw winners consistently.
  • Remember, that when you get dealt a “bad hand” (foal) get out as soon as possible.
     › Your first loss is your best loss.
    › Most people selling weanlings are selling the culls.
    › Don’t add up what a horse has cost and then work out the reserve at sale time.
    › The horse is worth what someone will pay.
    › Find someone who can accurate assess what horses are worth. Test them and make sure they do actually know.
    › Don’t be frightened to sell good strong foals as weanlings as many make yearling money.
  • Choose your stallions based on more than perception, indoctrination, hype, higher prices and press ie do some due diligence.
    › Race performance, pedigree and price are some of the issues to consider.
    › However, arguably more important is type and speed.
    › Ensure you have not reached saturation point with a stallion, regarding potential progeny numbers.  Remember supply and demand theories.

AT THE END OF THE DAY the more you put into planning a mating the more you will get out of it.

As with everything when people are getting out of something there is an opportunity for people to get into it.
Despite what a number of pessimists want to say about the industry it has been very hard to find a nice mare in the sales catalogues this year. Most people were selling problems or mares with black marks or lost opportunity firmly marked against them in some form or other. This is why fillies and mares off the track are still very expensive and hard to buy, because breeders want mares with no problems or downside.

Don’t be frightened to invest – “When potatoes are cheap plant potatoes”. (IR)


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