My comments about a slow September and October with bookings and people re-evaluating their involvement, strategies, retained mares and commitments in 2008 opened up a rather taboo area. However raising the issue about the level of bookings to stallions during the season has flagged some interesting things from other stud masters (not all can be printed).
Waikato Stud owner Garry Chittick, breeder, owner and former NZ Racing Industry Board chairman "breeds to race", having won Group 1 events on both sides of the Tasman and has more than 30 horses in work at any one time, but is concerned that. In spite of industry advances in recent years through tax incentives, he is not being joined by more enthusiasts.
"Our bookings are down by at least 150 this year at Waikato and that is a worry for me. We served 834 mares last year, which would have been more than any other stud in New Zealand, and we generally aim at the middle of the road breeder. I would be surprised if other studs do not have a similar situation and I know some leading Australian studs are the same. It is not a healthy sign." Courtesy of ANZ Bloodstock News. 11/11/08.
My Grandfather ran a very successful business (Wholesale Nursery - biggest in Southern Hemisphere) and had a production cycle length not unlike the horse game. His theory during the development of the business through a depression and second world war was simple "When potatoes are cheap, plant potatoes". The analogy worked then and it is with this in mind that I raise an interesting scenario to breeders sitting out the year in 2008. Are you doing the right thing if you have the right mare?
Good producing mares are hard to find (based on type and performance) if you have one then that gives you a decided advantage already. Stallions however are plentiful. In 2011 when the yearlings conceived this season are up for sale what will the industry or importantly the gambling landscape look like.
Our racing industry is being confronted with all sorts of new funding issues. The latest scenario suggests lower taxes on the racing dollar, but no access to the gaming machines income. Government assures us we won't be worse off - Hang on. Assuming that is gospel and the calculation shows that in relation to the previous year we are going to get the same total revenues out of gambling forums we control. Then what is the issue. Government fulfilled its promise. However, now it is up to the Racing Industry to control your own backyard.
Like a big black cloud we have a formula for the ongoing funding of racing, but one thing was not addressed. Where is the product? We need horses. We need breeders. We need big field to encourage turnover. We need the breeding industry in 2008 and beyond to be vibrant and sustaining the racing industry with the numbers to grow our sport. Surely, someone should be worrying about production now, not in 4 years. Unfortunately it is never mentioned or spoken about.
Coming off EI in 2007, common sense suggests we need to have supply in 2008 increasing not decreasing.
Ian Rimington.